Former President Donald Trump was declared the victor in the 2024 presidential election in the early morning hours of November 6. He is only the second president in U.S. history to be elected to non-consecutive terms. (The first was Grover Cleveland – elected in 1884 and again in 1892.)

The Associated Press reports that Trump has a “sweeping plans for a second administration” that includes a focus on immigration, tax cuts, deregulation and more.

Here’s a rundown of his positions on hot-button economic issues of interest to the promotional products industry – in particular taxes, trade agreements and tariffs – as well as predictions from economists and legal experts on those and other issues.

Trump On Taxes

Trump supports making the individual and estate tax cuts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, lowering the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 15% for companies that make their products in the United States and exempting Social Security benefits, tips and overtime pay from taxation.

He is also considering replacing the income tax with tariffs, expanding the Child Tax Credit to a $5,000 universal credit and taxing large private university endowments.

While the executive branch wields a great deal of independent power when it comes to tariffs and trade agreements, keep in mind that the next president’s tax reform efforts will depend on the composition and priorities of Congress.

Trump On Trade Agreements

Importing from Asian nations other than China and nearshoring with North, Central and South American partners has become increasingly important for the promotional products industry. International trade agreements affect American companies’ ability to do business abroad by reducing barriers and providing protections and rights to U.S. businesses. 

Trump withdrew the U.S. from negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement signed by 12 Pacific Rim economies, in 2017. He has promised to likewise terminate its replacement, the 14-nation Indo-Pacific Economic Framework “on day one,” according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Although he was also an ardent critic of the North American Free Trade Agreement, Trump’s administration negotiated the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that kept in place a nearly tariff-free market with Mexico and Canada.

Trump On Tariffs

Section 301 tariffs on Chinese imports enacted by the Trump administration – and continued and expanded by the Biden administration – have added costs for many promo companies over the past few years. Tariffs were a pillar of Trump’s reelection platform and likely to be a key economic tool of his second administration.

In his Agenda47 policy platform, Trump advocates for a 10% across-the-board tariff on most foreign goods, and he has indicated that this tariff could be as high as 20%. Additionally, he has proposed a system of reciprocal tariffs, which would adjust U.S. tariffs to match those levied by other countries.

Trump has also repeatedly called for a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, argued for rescinding China’s Most Favored Nation trade status and said he would impose “a four-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods,” along with new rules to stop U.S. companies from making investments in China and to inhibit purchases of assets in the U.S. by Chinese companies.

Just this week, Trump also suggested that he would levy a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico – despite the USMCA – unless that country cracks down on border crossings. Trade between the U.S. and Mexico totaled an estimated $855 billion in 2022, which includes nearly $500 billion of goods imported into the U.S.

According to a report from the National Retail Federation, these proposed tariffs could reduce U.S. consumer spending by as much as $78 billion annually. The report indicates that tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports and up to 100% on Chinese goods could result in double-digit price hikes that would further inflate consumer costs as companies pass those costs onto consumers. Many U.S. companies that rely on foreign suppliers have already started preparing to raise prices in response to whatever tariffs Trump imposes, according to The Washington Post.

Predictions From Economic Experts

How will Trump’s proposed policies affect the U.S. economy overall?

  • Reuters reports that Goldman Sachs analysts suggest Trump’s proposed corporate tax cuts would boost earnings of S&P 500 companies about 4%.
  • Goldman Sachs also predicts the U.S. economy overall would take a hit from Trump’s proposed tariff expansion, as tariffs drive up prices and import-driven businesses like promotional products firms pass on higher costs to consumers.
  • USA Today reports predictions by Moody’s Analytics that inflation would rise from 3% this year to 3.5% in 2025 under a second Trump administration and that Trump’s plan would spark a recession by mid-year.
  • The Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan, research-based initiative, speculates that “an all-out trade war … could reduce U.S. GDP by as much as 5 percent over the next two decades.” Its Guide to the 2024 Presidential Candidates’ Policy Proposals suggests that complete removal of all trade barriers by the U.S. and its trading partners could boost U.S. GDP by as much as 8% over the next two decades.

Policy Predictions From Legal Experts

Among other tools, PPAI Media partners with Law360 to track regulatory and legal proceedings affecting the promotional products industry. Through the campaign, the service’s legal experts have weighed in with predictions about policy changes to expect from either candidate:

  • Infrastructure: “Experts who spoke with Law360 before the election said the robust levels of infrastructure funding that flowed from 2021’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, commonly known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, is expected to slow as Trump reprioritizes more ‘traditional’ highway, road and bridge reconstruction projects.”
  • Environment: “[E]nvironmental law experts are looking for him to quickly depart from the Biden administration’s priorities and return to the form established in his first administration by taking a lax approach to industry enforcement, rolling back climate change rules, reducing stringency of regulations and deemphasizing environmental justice. During his first term, Trump selected conservative attorneys with strong ties to industry to lead the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.”
  • Patents: “The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office during Donald Trump’s first term as president focused on making the invalidation of patents more difficult, and attorneys say his second administration is likely to do the same.”
  • AI In The Workplace: “A Trump administration would be expected to reverse most of the Biden administration’ s AI regulatory efforts regarding the workplace, especially any measures that might be viewed as stifling innovation or which purport to limit ‘free speech,’ or that are overtly pro-union. … The Trump administration would also likely withdraw the Biden administration’s blueprint for an ‘AI Bill of Rights,’ which addressed the possibility of employers using technologies for anti-union purposes.”
  • Financial Services Policies: “[A] second Trump administration would likely aim to roll back many of the Biden administration’s recent efforts to regulate banks and lenders and protect borrowers.… Trump would also likely take a more active approach to trying to influence the Federal Reserve.”

The regulatory landscape is also likely to change, especially after the Supreme Court overturned the 40-year-old Chevron precedent, ending deference to federal agencies and opening the door for more successful attempts to challenge federal regulations.

As always, check PPAI Media for the latest news on regulations governing product safety, PFAS, and other issues of particular interest to the promotional products industry.