With most industries understandably focusing on theoretical trade tariffs under the Trump administration, a more immediate threat looms before President-elect Donald Trump is even inaugurated.

Wednesday, January 15, is the deadline for the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) to work out a contract before workers along the entire East Coast and Gulf Coast ports of the United States go on strike.

If a deal is not reached, more than 200,000 dock workers could participate in a work stoppage, effectively shutting down trade entering the East Coast of the United States.

Here is a brief catch-up on the situation:

  • On October 4, a historic three-day strike ended with a collective sigh of relief by involved parties and just about every industry. The strike, while massive, was resolved in time for the supply chain to recover. It was celebrated as an example of the powers of collective bargaining.
  • There was one huge caveat: It was only a 100-day tentative deal, with the goal of hammering out a six-year deal within that time.
  • While crucial agreements were made regarding wages, the short deal was reportedly a result of tabled disagreements over automation.


Before Christmas, Trump made comments suggesting fairly emphatically that he shared the ILA’s concerns over automation. This potentially contradicts the logic that Trump would step in and end the strike when he takes office.

“I’ve studied automation and know just about everything there is to know about it,” Trump posted. “The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen.”

A Secret Meeting?

According to CNBC, the ILA and the USMX held a “secret meeting” on Sunday, January 5, in an attempt to make headway on their disagreements over automation. Official negotiations resumed two days later.

  • That initial Sunday meeting reportedly produced suggestions of an agreement that new technology would be paired with new union jobs, but the language of such promises remains too vague to assuage the ILA’s fears that the USMX is planning ways to eliminate jobs in the future.
  • There are also some suggestions that the USMX giving in to automation negotiations would then lead them to take the 62% wage increase that was originally outlined in the tentative deal “off the table.”


In December, Brian Nemeth, global co-leader of logistics and transportation, partner and managing director at AlixPartners, told Supply Chain Dive, “I would say where we are now it’s 50/50 and every day that goes on, where there’s not a conversation and a negotiation conversation that’s occurring, it increases.” More than 15 days have passed since Nemeth made those comments.

Promo Perspective

Unlike previous negotiations between the ILA and USMX, neither party has commented on what was discussed or how much progress, if any, has been made.

“I tend to take no news as a positive because neither side has come out rattling their sabers, saying the other side is being completely unreasonable,” says John Janson, vice president of global logistics at SanMar – PPAI 100’s No. 1 supplier, which accounted for nearly $4 billion in revenue in 2023.

Regardless, Janson still predicts there will be a work stoppage beginning January 15.

We’re in good shape with inventory, so we just have to continue to be very resilient and flexible.”

John Janson

VP of Global Logisitics, SanMar

“It will probably last a maximum of five days before the president would step in because he can’t afford the consequences,” Janson says.

The worst-case scenario would make it nearly impossible for most branded merchandise companies to prevent feeling the consequences of another massive strike.

  • Last October, the U.S. economy was projected to lose between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion each day of a work stoppage, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan.
  • Even if Trump were to end the work stoppage – something that seems unlikely based on his December comments – he would not be able to do so until five days into the strike.


“We’re trying to get out any product that we have at a unionized port,” Janson says. “We’re putting contingency plans that worked previously back on the table for implementation. We’re in good shape with inventory, so we just have to continue to be very resilient and flexible.”

In December, Paul Hirsch, MAS, CEO of HIRSCH, told PPAI Media that the ambiguous nature of the automation dispute, in comparison to a more straightforward disagreement over, say, wages, led to HIRSCH, PPAI 100’s No. 20 supplier, taking precautions ahead of time.

Based on early accounts that the issue for the negotiation breakdown is that surrounding automation, which in many ways can be more difficult to navigate than the previous wage discussion, we have taken extra precautions to ensure the integrity of our inventory levels…”

Paul Hirsch

CEO, HIRSCH

“Based on early accounts that the issue for the negotiation breakdown is that surrounding automation, which in many ways can be more difficult to navigate than the previous wage discussion, we have taken extra precautions to ensure the integrity of our inventory levels if another strike does indeed take place in January,” says Hirsch.